https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-its-so-freaking-hard-to-make-a-good-covid-19-model/
Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model
Here we are, in the middle of a pandemic, staring out our living room windows like aquarium fish. The question on everybody’s minds: How bad will this really get? Followed quickly by: Seriously, how long am I going to have to live cooped up like this?
We all want answers. And, given the volume of research and data being collected about the novel coronavirus, it seems like answers ought to exist.
There are certainly numbers out there. Trouble is, they’re kind of all over the place. For example, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is using models that forecast a best-case scenario in which about 200,000 Americans die, according to reporting by The New York Times. Meanwhile, a report from Imperial College London that made headlines for its dire, modeling-based forecasts predicted about 2.2 million U.S. deaths from the coronavirus, if nobody changes their everyday behavior.
Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model
Here we are, in the middle of a pandemic, staring out our living room windows like aquarium fish. The question on everybody’s minds: How bad will this really get? Followed quickly by: Seriously, how long am I going to have to live cooped up like this?
We all want answers. And, given the volume of research and data being collected about the novel coronavirus, it seems like answers ought to exist.
There are certainly numbers out there. Trouble is, they’re kind of all over the place. For example, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is using models that forecast a best-case scenario in which about 200,000 Americans die, according to reporting by The New York Times. Meanwhile, a report from Imperial College London that made headlines for its dire, modeling-based forecasts predicted about 2.2 million U.S. deaths from the coronavirus, if nobody changes their everyday behavior.