We are DOOMED, again, or are we, or is it to late????

[Gazrok]

In a real SHTF scenario, the homeless in cities will be the best poised to survive (in the cities), as they are already adept at coping with the elements, finding food and water, etc. True, some of their dependent sources won't be available, but they know how to look and find for things.

 

[tmttactical]

I do agree that more (not by numbers but by percentage of their population) rural folks will survive a SHTF event, simply because they are closer to the food sources. The Urban (my neck of the woods) majority do not have more that a weeks worth of food stored. I doubt there are many that have a weeks worth of water stored (one gallon per person per day). So by the time they figure out that the S has hit he fan, they will be out of both food and water. Then the real test starts, Will they bond together and work for the good of the community or will it become dog eat dog. I think the Christians ( for lack of a better term) groups will try to build a community but I also think they will be too few and they will be over run by the dogs.

Since the dogs will not have the ability to prosper long term, it will eventually only be the rural folks and the hidden Greymen from the cities that survive. People in the cities will die of thirst with water heaters filled with water. Multi story buildings will stand empty but filled with a thousand gallons of water. Not everybody in the cities will die, some will actually prosper. Not all rural folks will survive, crop failures, accidents, and of course some of the locals who will refuse to work for their supplies. I do tend to agree that anywhere form 60 to 90 percent of the population will die in a major (national ) SHTF event. A worldwide grid down (EMP / Solar) event and the devastation is going to be mind blowing. I think disease, depression and famine will be the leading cause of death. Havoc and chaos will play a minor role but is greatly over estimated by Bollywood (used to be Hollywood but too much B.S. now). I still want to collect and stock pile guns and ammo, they are more fun to collect than boxes of cheerios.

The Urban folks depend on electronics for their information. To some degree rural folks do too but they have the advantage of not needing the grocery store to be stocked up. By the time the Urban folks figure out the next food / water shipment is not coming, they will already be out of supplies. Those in Urban environments, that know where to find water, have food stocked piled and can grow food will most likely survive. I say that because they will know enough to stay hidden and will also be very well armed. The typical home will not be defensible, so Urban survivors will have to find high ground structures to move into. Every environment will have some survivors , just not a lot of survivors. Jm2C

 

[tmttactical]

In a real SHTF scenario, the homeless in cities will be the best poised to survive (in the cities), as they are already adept at coping with the elements, finding food and water, etc. True, some of their dependent sources won't be available, but they know how to look and find for things.

I think the homeless will adapt faster but almost all of their current food sources will be gone, depleted by the rest of the population before very long. It will not be beneficial to be a master dumpster diver, if there is nothing in the dumpster. I think the homeless will be the second group to die off, medically dependent folks will be the first group to die off. The very young (babies, toddlers, etc) and the very old (seniors) will be the third die off group. The snowflakes (mentally weak -- not crazies) will be the fourth die off group. After that there will not be a general group die off but those picked by Mr. Murphy (illness, accident, etc.). The prepared will be the longest lasting group but they will not be invincible. Mr. Murphy will rule every group and person.

 

[Petoski]

There is little evidence that Humans will adapt to a post SHTF scenario without prior preparation. Learning the skills to survive takes a long time. We are no different to the other animals on this planet. If a animal raised in captivity is released in to the wild without having learnt the necessary skills it won't last long.

 

[bigpaul]

humans these days are very specialised, apart from the work they do to earn a living they have little or no skills, if they want something done they simply get someone in, they wont be able to do that post SHTF, if they or their group if they have one cant do something it wont get done, the time to learn skills and knowledge is NOW, after SHTF its too late.
and why would they bother to learn new skills if they think "it'll never happen"?? the die off will be huge.

 

[Squirtgunsquirter]

There is little evidence that Humans will adapt to a post SHTF scenario without prior preparation. Learning the skills to survive takes a long time. We are no different to the other animals on this planet. If a animal raised in captivity is released in to the wild without having learnt the necessary skills it won't last long.

Little evidence, except all of human history.

Your talking about specialist predators, or animals that require behaviors to be taught. No other dog taught my dog to scavenge carcasses, or hunt rabbits. He's an ace at both.

Humans are like pigs. Release a pig into the wild, you get a wild pig, not a dead pig. And real quick, you get packs of wild pigs.

Are you a Bushcrafter? I associate that sense of superiority over the rest of "untrained" humanity with bushcrafting.

Can't rub two sticks together and make a fire? Your dead.

It's not a vast intellectual leap for the average human to understand that shit just went South, and it's getting cold, and I need some blankets and lighters and food.

People don't just lay down and croak. Some might, but the "die off"? That's going to be from people who don't want to die making other people die so they don't have to. It's not going to be from lack of skills. Scavenging requires little in the way of skills. Murder? Brick, walk quiet, thump.

Being prepared doesn't make us smarter, or more "woke", or more dangerous, or anything but a bit less inconvenienced at the beginning of SHTF.

Those who say urban areas will be a complete mess post SHTF, I agree. But ethnic neighborhoods still exist, the tribe still exists, and a lot of those folks will get their shit in one bag real quick.

 

[bigpaul]

still giving sheeple too much credit, I don't know about America I know nothing about America never been there don't have friends or family there, but I do know the people of my own country and for the most part they are dumb and getting dumber every day, relying on technology and store bought goods isn't going to help them survive when it all goes down the pan, scavenging/stealing? they wont live long, just long enough to meet someone bigger and stronger than they are then its all over for them.
release an animal into the wild that has no idea how to hunt and pretty soon you'll have a dead animal, if the knowledge isn't there they wont live long enough to learn.

 

[DrHenley]

How much food is grown in urban areas? Without a steady supply of food coming from outside, food supplies will quickly be depleted. Dumpster diving? Everyone will be dumpster diving...try to find even a morsel of what they once considered refuse. And the landfills where there are mountains of refuse? They aren't in the city.

 

[bigpaul]

once SHTF the imports into the UK will stop, we import about half of our food, half of that comes from the EU the other half from all round the world.
once all the food is used up which wont take long most of it will be trashed rather that eaten, we have no public food stockpiles apart from what is in the supermarkets and in the distribution warehouses- just off the various motorways.
once that's all gone, maybe a few weeks maybe a month, even if we can grow food without disruption-doubtfull- given the land mass we can only feed about 25% of the current population, work out the mortality rate for yourself.

 

[Squirtgunsquirter]

Ok.

I just happen to think a lot people exist as they do now, technology dependant, delivered food dependant, because they can.

I said, urban areas, megacities won't do well. Gonna be a nightmare in there.

I just disagree with the term "sheeple". I think it does a disservice to normal, hardworking, everyday Jane's and Joe's. It's a weird layer of insulting separation, "terrific, highly trained, ultra prepared us vs lazy, mind controlled, helpless them".

I have some food and water, some guns and ammo, I practice some skills... Nothing special.

 

[bigpaul]

sheeple merely means those that act like a herd of sheep do, flocking together and doing the exact same things, controlled and pre programmed. I see it all the time every time I go into a town or other urban setting. its not meant derogatory just a fact of life. and I didn't invent the term it existed long before I started using it.

 

[Gazrok]

Ok.

I just happen to think a lot people exist as they do now, technology dependant, delivered food dependant, because they can.

I tend to agree with you. I think many people will get with the program very quickly, on how to survive without tech. It won't be near the "die-off" that many likely think....

 

[tmttactical]

I tend to agree with you. I think many people will get with the program very quickly, on how to survive without tech. It won't be near the "die-off" that many likely think....

I am going to have to disagree. The die off is going to be huge, simply because the population is huge. As I stated before, medically dependent folks go first (group 1). No power to preserve certain medicines (insulin for starters) and those folks are history. Next comes those under medical care (group 2) --- the care givers are going to be stuck at home or have decided to stay at home to care for their own families. Seniors and the very young (group 3) will not have the strength (physical & immune systems) to survive. Mentally / emotionally weak will be next group (group 4). The next group will be those that are completely unprepared and non-skilled (group 5). The Urban folks will make up the majority of group 5 but some will also be rural folks. Then there is the next to last group, the survivors. Those with the skills and or preparations to buy enough time to have a fighting chance (group 6). The very last group (#7) are the very few that Mr. Murphy does not select for future fun and games, those that are more lucky than smart. There will always be a few of them.

Now the numbers involved in the die off are going to be huge but many are going to survive and some will actually prosper. I am going to agree with BigPaul and that most people have distanced themselves too far from the source or knowledge of where to find or grow food. The don't even have the ability to find the seed needed for food. The very short amount of time people are going to have to convert from the technological age back to the agricultural age is not going to be enough. Even if you have the seed, the knowledge and an available safe space, do you have enough food stored to reach the first harvest? Lack of sanitation, hygiene, water, food, medicine and environmental protection, is going to wipe out a huge number of folks. I do call them sheeple simply because they are not aware, not because I have any vast knowledge or superior skills, but because I have learned to read the writing on the wall. They could be called the Dreamers, the Uninformed , the techie's or what ever term but the bottom line is they will become the biggest number of casualties in the first 5 groups.

I do agree somewhat with SGS, that many folks will quickly adapt but it is not going to be for the betterment of community or mankind. The need for immediate survival is going to cause too many to revert to the Warlord mentality. WROL the world will become a contest of daily struggle. No time to grow the food, so you are going to have to take it from any who have it, just that simple. Now granted many in rural areas will have stored food and will already have crops in the ground but will they have enough to feed all the surrounding small towns? For every farmer, how many non-farmers are in the surrounding areas? Even the rural areas are going to have difficult times, they may have enough food but the difficulty to get it to the town folks will pose a problem. How many draft horses and wagons are still serviceable? In time all these logistics will be resolved but the die off will not be prevented. In the past (before welfare) cities / metro area populations were kept in check by the available food and employment, Now thanks to Big Government and the road to hades paved with all those good intentions, the cities are too far removed from the food sources and the population is much too big for local farmers to support. Subtract any and all forms of mass transportation for supplies, and instant chaos results.

I think each posting member is correct, in their interpretation to some degree, but I also think the die off is going to be huge, just from a logistical sense. Forget all the Mad Max (no insult to new member -- LOL) but mankind has evolved too far from it's basic needs. A family pet can turn feral and survive but most family pets will perish. Many people will survive but most will not. All we can do is try and be one of the survivors, without giving up too many of our values. JMHO

 

[Gazrok]

No power to preserve certain medicines (insulin for starters) and those folks are history. Next comes those under medical care (group 2) --- the care givers are going to be stuck at home or have decided to stay at home to care for their own families. Seniors and the very young (group 3) will not have the strength (physical & immune systems) to survive.

Well, this is a given.

 

[Gazrok]

You think that well organized and armed groups won't have crop growers they protect to grow food for them? I think that Negan's "Saviors" are pretty spot on for how this is going to play out (except I don't think any smart group or leaders will crap on their providers nearly as bad as Negan's folks did). - and for the same reason....revolt.

 

[tmttactical]

The Negan concept will take time to establish, the big die off will have already happen. As far as the mistreatment of the food growers, absolute power corrupts absolutely. Can you name any dictator that went down in history as the Great benevolent Dictator? The projected sequence: Chaos, die off, war lords and then return to rule of law. The pattern has repeated itself down through history, time and time again.

 

[Kevin L]

Kevin, consider these things. In the past we've had intense hurricanes and wild fires why predict that would change? And 'mass extinction'??? Name them. I'd like to put fire ants on that list, but I don't think this is real at all. Sure, a few animals here & there. Mostly just variations of some critter, the yellow tree bellowing frog (making the name up) may be gone, but it has 200 cousins that are nearly identical. But nothing 'massive' at all.

And the best one: Antarctic ice melting? There is currently more ice there than ever in history. Check your facts.

And the worst: 'environmental refugees'. Hogwash. More like 'we want welfare refugees'.

I guess we'll never see eye to eye on global warming, but I ask (as a favor) you to consider the idea of global warming from a different perspective.

People want to dismiss climate change because it isn't proven, the science is sketchy in some peoples' minds, and it's just a theory. We should be skeptical before we upset the applecart and spend billions of dollars on something that may not even happen.

All fine and good, but . . .

Consider the cold war with the USSR. We spent over 10 trillion dollars on enough nuclear weapons, military might, espionage, etc. because we had to be prepared in case the Soviet Union decided to attack.

Note the amount of money spent on something that "might" happen. It wasn't proven that they wanted to attack us. It was just something that might happen, so we couldn't take a chance.

Our eagerness to spend money recklessly and wastefully in the cold war and our reluctance to spend resources to fix global warming seems--to me--like a double standard.

This concept (I don't wish to be accused of plaigarism for passing these ideas off as my own) is not original with me.

Both Carl Sagan and Isaac Asimov have aired similar arguments years ago. They made sense then, and--to me, at least--they do now.

Even if you still disagree with me, please tell me that you can see my point . . . as I sometimes have problems communicating.

 

[Proud Prepper]

I guess we'll never see eye to eye on global warming, but I ask (as a favor) you to consider the idea of global warming from a different perspective.

People want to dismiss climate change because it isn't proven, the science is sketchy in some peoples' minds, and it's just a theory. We should be skeptical before we upset the applecart and spend billions of dollars on something that may not even happen.

All fine and good, but . . .

Consider the cold war with the USSR. We spent over 10 trillion dollars on enough nuclear weapons, military might, espionage, etc. because we had to be prepared in case the Soviet Union decided to attack.

Note the amount of money spent on something that "might" happen. It wasn't proven that they wanted to attack us. It was just something that might happen, so we couldn't take a chance.

Our eagerness to spend money recklessly and wastefully in the cold war and our reluctance to spend resources to fix global warming seems--to me--like a double standard.

This concept (I don't wish to be accused of plaigarism for passing these ideas off as my own) is not original with me.

Both Carl Sagan and Isaac Asimov have aired similar arguments years ago. They made sense then, and--to me, at least--they do now.

Even if you still disagree with me, please tell me that you can see my point . . . as I sometimes have problems communicating.

Your comparison isnt anywhere close to the same cost to effect ratio. Your comparing fiction to non fiction. We already know what effect spending money on military tech, equipment and training has on warfare. Give me an example on the effect of money spent on countering global warming that has occured? Ok I know thats a tough one to truthfuly answer, so how about the effect money spent on a local enviromental change or pollution? Those exist.

Its the same with macro evolution and micro evolution. There is evidence of micro evolution, so you come to the false conclution than there can be macro evolution in nature. This goes hand in hand with leftist thinking. Just because we see evidence of our ability to change localized enviroments, does not mean we can change global climats in any significant way no matter how much money we spend on it.

 

[Kevin L]

Your comparison isnt anywhere close to the same cost to effect ratio. Your comparing fiction to non fiction. We already know what effect spending money on military tech, equipment and training has on warfare. Give me an example on the effect of money spent on countering global warming that has occured? Ok I know thats a tough one to truthfuly answer, so how about the effect money spent on a local enviromental change or pollution? Those exist.

Its the same with macro evolution and micro evolution. There is evidence of micro evolution, so you come to the false conclution than there can be macro evolution in nature. This goes hand in hand with leftist thinking. Just because we see evidence of our ability to change localized enviroments, does not mean we can change global climats in any significant way no matter how much money we spend on it.

My only point was to to point out a double standard on something that might happen.

Many of things that liberals push to combat global warming make sense anyway . . . even from a military viewpoint.

The middle east uses our oil profits to finance terrorism. If we switch to clean alternatives like solar, we eat into their oil profits. If we can use renewable fuels like biodiesel and (possibly) synthetic gasoline, then we don't have to send foreign aid to prop up "friendly" governments that are giving us something that we want.

And so on.

 

[Maverick]

Baby boomers are retiring and that puts millions of retirees in communities across the country many with some form of health issues, for the ones that haven’t died from a prolong absence of medications the survivors will be preyed upon first given they are the weakest link in society unless they part of an organize groups. Animals and humans are no different when it comes to predation, both will kill for needs where humans and animals separate is killing for wants, humans are far outside the bounds of any other species.

In reality I don’t see us heading to nationwide meltdown, I sure as hell don’t want for us to head down that path, I know I see a lot of so-called preppers in other forums that would love to see the world turned upside down or absolute anarchy in our streets... why the shit would anyone want that is beyond me, these fxxk heads ought to take there preps and live in Syria for a year for Christ Sakes if they think it’s all fun and an adventurous paradise. I may bitch and complain about politics or bitch about certain laws or just plain gripe a lot but I do-not want to see failure and anarchy in the nation as a rule. I am contempt at the pace I live now.