Update on chinese Coronavirus issue

[DrHenley]

 

[bigpaul]

CFR as calculated by Deaths/(Deaths+Recoveries) is now up to 84.2% in Iran. What the hell are they doing? Deliberately snuffing the patients? 16 deaths and only 3 recoveries (officially that is, the death toll is reportedly much much higher than that).

Iran has only basic health care and nothing like we have in the west.

 

[DrHenley]

No point in even reporting statistics in China anymore. The numbers are completely meaningless. It is now obvious beyond any shadow of doubt that they are just making up the numbers.

COVID-19 Statistics as of 25 Feb 2020
Outside of China
Confirmed 2,684
Deaths 44
Recoveries 267
Case Fatality Rate (Deaths/Deaths+Recoveries) 14.1%

In Iran (probably as meaningless as China's numbers)
Confirmed 95
Deaths 16 (real number at least four times that according to insiders)
Recoveries 3
Case Fatality Rate 84%

Outside Iran and China
Confirmed 2,589
Deaths 28
Recoveries 264
Case Fatality Rate 9.6%

Singapore, Thailand, UK, US, Russia, Australia, Canada, Germany, Spain, Austria, Belgium, Finland, Israel, Sweden...all countries with confirmed cases but have yet to report a single death. Italy meanwhile has a case fatality rate of 77%. What does it mean? Different strains? That happened with the Bird Flu. In China the Bird Flu had a case fatality rate of 33%. By the time it got to North America it was very mild, even in birds, and completely benign in humans.

 

[Maverick]

China accusing the US of spreading panic... again

How the hell is the US spreading panic?

 

[Maverick]

Austria, Croatia is now on the radar

Canary Islands hotel with 1,000 tourists placed on lockdown following suspected coronavirus case

Korean Air cabin crew worker tests positive for coronavirus, report says

 

[Brent S]

Wether you agree with the reported numbers or not, since that’s all we can base statistics on, the current death rate is at 3.4%. That’s based on 80350 cases and 2700 deaths. Not terrible since most deaths are in countries with lower health care standards. Not great either though....

 

[DrHenley]

the current death rate is at 3.4%. That’s based on 80350 cases and 2700 deaths. Not terrible since most deaths are in countries with lower health care standards. Not great either though....

Brent how do you know that all of the currently infected people will survive? Because that is exactly what you are saying.

 

[DrHenley]

How the hell is the US spreading panic?

Same way the whistleblower doctor was "spreading panic". By telling the truth.

 

[JackDW]

At this time, I agree with everyone's opinion that we cannot trust any of the numbers we are being fed. Seems I heard that in China hospitals were turning away patients and were out of test kits. How many of those had COVID-19 which was never reported (they were turned away). How many of those recovered and not being counted and how many deceased and were never counted.

The most recent "hot spot" appears to be Iran. My thoughts (based upon nothing but my opinion) the majority would never even attempt to make it to a hospital so any number from there would be greatly suspect.

Only after we start getting numbers from countries with better healthcare facilities (and reporting capabilities) will we really know how infectious and deadly this really is. But, I don't think that is very far away.

 

[Kevin L]

Kevin, I consider Occam's Razor a corollary of KISS.

Ptolemy actually expressed what we now consider Occam's Razor more precisely than William of Ockham ever did. The closest actual quote from Ockham was "Numquam ponenda est pluralitas sine necessitate" ("Plurality must never be posited without necessity".)

Ptolemy wrote: "We consider it a good principle to explain the phenomena by the simplest hypothesis possible."

The "razor" of Occam's Razor refers to shaving away unnecessary assumptions. (reducing plurality)

I know.

There are philosophers that maintain that Confucious explored a version of Occam's Razor in his writings.

As a paramedic (and a cardiac technician), I use Occam's Razor when working with EKG material (and many other situations).

As an example--and I'm over-simplifying a complex subject because this is a forum post, and not a textbook--consider that that there are 4 forms of death encountered by a paramedic.

1 type of death is "biological death", which we don't treat. This is someone who is decapitated, a decomposing body, and so on. A no-brainer, as there's nothing to be done.

3 types of clinical death (ie: "cardiac arrest") are possibly reversible with prompt, aggressive actions.

Occam's Razor is sometimes neccesary to sort out the differences between these 3 kinds of cardiac arrest, as the treatment for these different kinds of cardiac arrest can be different. We have to act quickly, as reflection on subtle EKG differences takes time, and time is always in short supply when we're working a cardiac arrest. Occam's Razor gives us a way to make decisions quickly in certian circumstances. In the situation that I'm talking about, it's okay to be wrong . . . but it's not okay to be indecisive.

One of the ways that William of Occam stated the razor was as follows: "Do not multiply causes beyond the barest requirements of necessity."

We--as paramedics--will say: "If you hear hoofbeats in the distance, go looking for horses . . . not zebras." This statement is a different way of expressing Occam's Razor.

When I teach EKG interpretation, I require my students to know and understand it, and I give them situations during the practical exam that can only be solved by applying this rule.

If they don't get this rule, then they fail.

 

[Illini Warrior]

 

[Robinjopo1]

Just bought Lysol concentrate and Lysol spray.

 

[DrHenley]

 

[Robinjopo1]

Oh yeah, I went to another independent pharmacy and they were also out of masks. Send they had no idea when they would restock

 

[Maverick]

CDC Warns of Coronavirus Spread in USA: ‘Disruption to Everyday Life Might Be Severe’

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/...-disruption-to-everyday-life-might-be-severe/

 

[DrHenley]

A very uncomfortable thought...

How would you design a super virus and use it to create an unstoppable epidemic?

How about:
Design it to have a long incubation period.
Design it so that it is infectious before there are any symptoms.
Design it so that the early symptoms mimic other, more common diseases.
Design it so that many infected people never get any serious symptoms, but are still infectious.
Design it so that it rapidly mutates making it invulnerable to vaccines.
Design it so that it can re-infect people, and be much more fatal the second time.
Release it in a country like China that is reluctant to share information with other countries.
Time the release so it will spread but not be yet kill anyone (giving the host country insufficient reason to divulge it yet) just prior to a festival that attracts millions of people from all over the world, most of whom will return home before showing any symptoms.

 

[Proud Prepper]

CDC Warns of Coronavirus Spread in USA: ‘Disruption to Everyday Life Might Be Severe’

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/...-disruption-to-everyday-life-might-be-severe/

Many of us have been knowing this for weeks. This goes to show the incompetence and ignorance of the people in charge of our country's agencies. I suppose they where hoping for a miracle and did not want to shut down the commerce. Now it will be worse and less people will believe anything our government says, which will cause loss of control and order.

 

[Kevin L]

A very uncomfortable thought...

How would you design a super virus and use it to create an unstoppable epidemic?

How about:
Design it to have a long incubation period.
Design it so that it is infectious before there are any symptoms.
Design it so that the early symptoms mimic other, more common diseases.
Design it so that many infected people never get any serious symptoms, but are still infectious.
Design it so that it rapidly mutates making it invulnerable to vaccines.
Design it so that it can re-infect people, and be much more fatal the second time.
Release it in a country like China that is reluctant to share information with other countries.
Time the release so it will spread but not be yet kill anyone (giving the host country insufficient reason to divulge it yet) just prior to a festival that attracts millions of people from all over the world, most of whom will return home before showing any symptoms.

Read Stephen King's novel The Stand. The ideas that King explores in this book are seemingly anticipitory of our current situation.

I don't claim that King is psychic, but this situation is something that has worried scientists for decades.

See the book The Coming Plague by Laurie Garrett.
The Coming Plague: Newly Emerging Diseases in a World Out of Balance https://www.amazon.com/dp/0140250913/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_apa_i_2cyvEbRRX8CGA

I put a link so you guys can see.

It's scarey stuff.

The thing that frightens me is a specific monkey disease in South America.

These tiny, delicate monkeys are able to hold their own against larger, smarter, more aggressive monkeys when it comes to territory and feeding.

Why?

All of the small monkeys are asymptomatic carriers of a herpes virus that can spread when they breathe on a larger monkey.

There are no symptoms until the larger monkey develops an incurable form of lymphatic cancer, and drops dead.

In the time between infection and cancer, the monkey is an asymptomatic carrier spreading this virus among other members of its troop. Yes, monkeys inadvertantly use biological warfare against each other.

See below link:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...Vaw38XyLpvSAO4rAzPNR7jiVq&cshid=1582662426294

 

[Maverick]

Many of us have been knowing this for weeks. This goes to show the incompetence and ignorance of the people in charge of our country's agencies. I suppose they where hoping for a miracle and did not want to shut down the commerce. Now it will be worse and less people will believe anything our government says, which will cause loss of control and order.

Then add the post I posted yesterday about airports (quoted below) we are a setting duck.

Watch video!

Officials say it's likely US will have a coronavirus outbreak

https://video.foxnews.com/v/6135597031001?playlist_id=6097749916001#sp=show-clips

 

[jimLE]

Oh yeah, I went to another independent pharmacy and they were also out of masks. Send they had no idea when they would restock

i know of someone who logged into walmarts web site.and got some n95 mask that way.not sure.but I'm thinking that he had the mask delivered to his front door.