priorities & value in hypothetical SHTF scenario

[Brent S]

If one looks at the violence that propagated during past blackouts is one sign or the violence that followed Katrina or the violence that has spread during a famine. The majority of this nation are unprepared for anything beyond 2 or 3 days, when no relief is in sight 3 days after an event things will go south very very quickly.

Several years ago the Government (EMP Commission) done a study on the catastrophic nationwide event of an EMP/hacking attack/CME (long term grid down) and the effects it would have on the people, one of the conclusion was that 90% of the population would be dead in 2 years with about half being suicides the other half would be sickness and violence. Since such an event has never taken place in modern times we only have past events to form a conclusion.

I sure hope those figures aren't too accurate.

 

[toexist]

I don't think Katrina is a good indicator of how things would play out in most parts of the United States.

Firstly Katrina forced people outside their homes. Imagine someone's safe haven bunker/home being flooded out. All of your supplies/resources wiped out. Everyone in area was essentially homeless immediately after incident. Even in such an extreme case media focused on looters and not at all on the people who did good. People were going out of their way for perfect strangers.

People tend to assume the worst & focus on the negative. I'm not saying that isn't an essential characteristic of survivalism. I'm just saying I believe most people will want and need to believe things will eventually go back to normal. Because of this thinking most will try to do good & resort to trading.

Obviously these are all hypotheticals for an unlikely scenario. Im just trying to simulate how things could play out realistically based on limited examples to go by.

I want to start prepping for peace of mind and not because I believe things will really play out. There are too many variables that would prevent things from escalating to the point that most are preparing for.

Nothing is impossible but it is still unlikely.

 

[DrHenley]

Katrina hit the Mississippi Gulf Coast too, and did much more catastrophic damage there than it did to New Orleans. But you didn't get hear any news stories because people didn't behave the same way they did in New Orleans.

I was on a Red Cross Disaster Action Team in the 1970s and worked a flood in New Orleans. I also worked a flood in Jackson, Mississippi. Night and day difference in the response by the citizens. What happened in New Orleans after Katrina was no surprise to me at all...

 

[toexist]

Katrina hit the Mississippi Gulf Coast too, and did much more catastrophic damage there than it did to New Orleans. But you didn't get hear any news stories because people didn't behave the same way they did in New Orleans.

I was on a Red Cross Disaster Action Team in the 1970s and worked a flood in New Orleans. I also worked a flood in Jackson, Mississippi. Night and day difference in the response by the citizens. What happened in New Orleans after Katrina was no surprise to me at all...

You would know better than me. I would imagine that all sorts of different areas/people/individuals would respond differently.

I've read many articles stating that most looting reports were false and/or exaggerated by media to increase ratings.

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_...rs_later_the_myths_that_persist_debunked.html

With that being said clearly bad things happened.

 

[bigpaul]

if we're talking about SHTF rather than just a winter storm, where the power goes off-and stays off, that will be the end for the majority of the population of the UK, people who have never lived without electricity will not be able to survive without it, no fuel at the pumps, no electric to cook or freeze their food, no deliveries to the shops, no water from the taps/faucets. most people would be dead within months-not years, no food, no water, most people would be dead in a short time from either starvation, dehydration, or disease, in fact I think more people will die from diseases than by violence-apart from maybe the inner cities where violence will be the norm.
one third of the population would die in the first 3 months, two thirds within 6 months, up to 90% within the first year.
finding someone else to join up with after that will be difficult if not impossible.

 

[bigpaul]

a 10% survival rate in the UK would be around 6 million people, sounds a lot dosent it? but that number is the same as there was in the mid 18th century(around 1750) which sort of puts it into context I think.

 

[Maverick]

If one gets a chance, read a book by Ted Koppel called 'lights out', it uses government numbers on food and water supply and talks about the unprepared in this country.

We are talking a total breakdown on what keeps us civil, much of the information comes from the government (local and federal level)

 

[bigpaul]

I use "War Plan UK" for a lot of information, its based on nuclear war and is very dated being written in the mid 80s, but it gives a lot of insight in to how TPTB-if they survived- would behave in the event of a national emergency, the survival of the population isn't high on their list of priorities. although this stuff is dated, and "civil defence" was disbanded around the date this was printed, I think non of the plans have been withdrawn and are still an option.

 

[Maverick]

One of the problems, When we compare the resiliency of past generations to today's generation we are comparing apples and oranges, the resiliency of today is based on modern technology and conveniences none of which will exist in short order after a total grid down. As Paul stated earlier, no tap water no food being transported to stores, no life saving meds, hospitals will be overwhelmed, how many will stick around to bury the dead? We have 11 cities with over a million people in them, resources will run out quickly causing the masses to venture further and further out not counting 150 cities with 300,000 or more people, we have 365 million people in this country, I will say famine will come in short order. No, we can't really compare to local events as I have above, I was only illustrating the breakdown. Most of these cities will bank on hope that the government will come in and save them, in a total grid down the people will not be the first priority of the government, the first priority is putting critical infrastructure back on line such as communication, law enforcement, airports, hospitals etc... The government doesn't have the resources to take care of the people without outside resources. Hunger breeds violence and that is a known fact many times over!

I don't put much faith on humanity thus one of the reasons why I prep, I'm under no illusion people will behave in a civil order 30 days out without food and water readily available. As I stated in an earlier post, the compassionate one's will be an early target of the unprepared.

 

[bigpaul]

my parents came through WW2 as did wife's parents.
people alive today have never been through a life changing event like that, not on home soil, and that is why they are so complascent.
when something happens to upset their cosy little world they wont know what to do.
30 days Maverick?? hell most of them will be on their last legs dying of starvation by then, or dehydration, or the cold. I think a lot of people will be surprised just how quickly people will perish.

 

[toexist]

If one gets a chance, read a book by Ted Koppel called 'lights out', it uses government numbers on food and water supply and talks about the unprepared in this country.

We are talking a total breakdown on what keeps us civil, much of the information comes from the government (local and federal level)

I just started reading this already one 3rd through. Good read...

 

[Maverick]

30 days Maverick?? hell most of them will be on their last legs dying of starvation by then, or dehydration, or the cold. I think a lot of people will be surprised just how quickly people will perish.

30 days out is when rural areas see and feel the full impact, the majority in rural areas are in better condition but only for a limited time also many in the rural areas are far older and become prey from those migrating from urban and city areas like a locus. Perhaps it would have been better to rephrase it this way, 'within 30 days'

 

[Maverick]

I just started reading this already one 3rd through. Good read...

There is a vintage movie called "Panic in Year Zero" (1962) it is a very interesting movie Dad took us kids to watch it in 63' my mom was pist at my dad for allowing us kids to see it (it's a very very tame movie by today's standards) Accurate but limited in scope.

 

[Maverick]

Read this today

4/14/2017
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/g...tric-grid-from-massive-attack/article/2620280

 

[Brent S]

There is a vintage movie called "Panic in Year Zero" (1962) it is a very interesting movie Dad took us kids to watch it in 63' my mom was pist at my dad for allowing us kids to see it (it's a very very tame movie by today's standards) Accurate but limited in scope.

Is that the one where a father, his wife and son and daughter are hiding in the hills in I believe Northern California? I just caught the end of an old movie a couple days ago, and think that was it. At the end the son was shot and they were heading to a military aid station.

 

[Maverick]

Is that the one where a father, his wife and son and daughter are hiding in the hills in I believe Northern California? I just caught the end of an old movie a couple days ago, and think that was it. At the end the son was shot and they were heading to a military aid station.

Yes it is

 

[toexist]

Is that the one where a father, his wife and son and daughter are hiding in the hills in I believe Northern California? I just caught the end of an old movie a couple days ago, and think that was it. At the end the son was shot and they were heading to a military aid station.

Muhahaha...spoiler alert.

 

[bigpaul]

30 days out is when rural areas see and feel the full impact, the majority in rural areas are in better condition but only for a limited time also many in the rural areas are far older and become prey from those migrating from urban and city areas like a locus. Perhaps it would have been better to rephrase it this way, 'within 30 days'

I have never believed in the "golden horde" theory so beloved by American fiction writers and JWR, especially in the UK, this is a country where people on average don't walk more than 200 feet/metres from their vehicles and we have an epidemic of obese people.

 

[Arcticdude]

I'm far enough away from an urban area to worry about hordes of hungry city walkers making it this far. Most city dwellers would sit around waiting for help from the government, and the smart ones would stay where the farm land is. There are too many mountains between there and here to cross to even get close to my place. The vast majority that managed to survive the first 30 days would not make through the first winter post SHTF.

 

[Brent S]

Yes it is

So that's where your prepper instincts got started! Seriously cheesey movie, like you said, by today's standards. I just happened to be channel surfing and came across the last fifteen mins of it the other day. Kind of wild that you brought it up just now. I believe the kid was Frankie Avalon.