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DrHenley

DrHenley

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Economist Walter Zimmerman joins the chorus warning of a major impending correction in the stock market:
"Every reliable technical tool is warning of major peaking action," said Walter Zimmerman, the senior technical analyst at United-ICAP. "This includes sentiment, momentum, classical chart patterns, and Elliott wave analysis.

"Most of the rally in the stock market since 2009 can be chalked up to the Federal Reserve’s attempt to create a ‘wealth effect’ through higher stock market prices. This only exacerbates the downside risk. Why? The stock market no is longer a lead indicator for the economy. It is instead reflecting Fed manipulation. Pushing the stock market higher while the real economy languishes has resulted in another bubble.
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"The next leg down will not be a partial correction of the advance since the 2009 lows. It will be another major financial crisis. The worst is yet to come."
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http://www.businessinsider.com/walter-zimmerman-warns-of-financial-crisis-2013-2
 
We can learn a lot from the Argentinians, how they cope with collapse. Would not recommend hoarding dollars though, perhaps the Ruble or the renminbi.
Best to go for hard bullion (gold).


"Inflation is at about 30 percent and there's been a 15 percent drop in the peso's value against the U.S. dollar over a few days"

http://www.journalreview.com/news/article_b95b4994-2334-5c98-9988-a6ae187bb2db.html

The ‘Walking Dead’: Dealing with the economic collapse in Argentina
http://www.journalreview.com/news/article_b95b4994-2334-5c98-9988-a6ae187bb2db.html
 
The Turkish central bank has announced a steep rise in the embattled nation’s overnight lending rate from 7.75 per cent to 12 per cent, as it moves to fend off a potential crisis that has rattled global financial markets in recent days.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...a-with-interest-rate-rise-20140129-31lpg.html

My country of birth South Africa currency is in free fall and interest rates were raised 50 bases points to prevent collapse after years of no rate rise.

Developing countries are collapsing due to USD dollar shortage and capital flight - basically they cant borrow money any more. The only reason the USA and world economy not collapsing is due to printing money and excessive borrowing which has to come to an end some time soon.
 
I just heard about the bond program the govt. is starting, passing it off as a retirement savings plan. Sounds like a good cover for there broke and need money. But dont forget, "its backed by the good faith security of the US of A! On another gloomy fact, our younger generations student loans are so deep, that will be another bubble to deal with. I'm not brilliant by any stretch, but i think i am reasonably intelligent, and if you look at all the economic data out there, you would have to be blind to not realize that we are in trouble. The best i can tell you is learn to grow food, animals, and real world skills that will help keep you and yours fed, warm and safe.
 
Brent S said:
I just heard about the bond program the govt. is starting, passing it off as a retirement savings plan. Sounds like a good cover for there broke and need money. But dont forget, "its backed by the good faith security of the US of A! .
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From what I have been able to gather, the MyRA is nothing but a Roth IRA with two key differences:

1 - It must be invested in savings bonds (which nobody wants)
2 - Uncle Sam is the beneficiary in the event of your death (use it or lose it)

It is nothing more than a vehicle for making it all that much easier for Uncle Sam to confiscate your retirement savings.

Almost anyone can open a Roth IRA. A Roth IRA is YOUR MONEY, can be invested many different ways (especially a self-directed IRA) and you choose the beneficiary in the event of y0ur death. It makes no sense to hand your money over to the Federal Government when there is no upside and a BIG DOWNSIDE.
 
DrHenley said:
From what I have been able to gather, the MyRA is nothing but a Roth IRA with two key differences:

1 - It must be invested in savings bonds (which nobody wants)
2 - Uncle Sam is the beneficiary in the event of your death (use it or lose it)

It is nothing more than a vehicle for making it all that much easier for Uncle Sam to confiscate your retirement savings.

Almost anyone can open a Roth IRA. A Roth IRA is YOUR MONEY, can be invested many different ways (especially a self-directed IRA) and you choose the beneficiary in the event of y0ur death. It makes no sense to hand your money over to the Federal Government when there is no upside and a BIG DOWNSIDE.
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Seriously, it's not assignable?
 
That is my understanding, but most news pieces about it don't mention that. Those news pieces are generally favorable too. They also treat the fact that it has to be invested in Savings Bonds as a "good" thing. Seriously, who buys Savings Bonds these days?

Once you hit a balance of $15,000 you have to convert it into a conventional IRA.
 
DrHenley said:
That is my understanding, but most news pieces about it don't mention that. Those news pieces are generally favorable too. They also treat the fact that it has to be invested in Savings Bonds as a "good" thing. Seriously, who buys Savings Bonds these days?

Once you hit a balance of $15,000 you have to convert it into a conventional IRA.
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I did hear that it had a low max. amount. I agree it's hard to find any real info out there. I guess once it's rolled out it will be clearer. Like you said though, who wants more useless paper backed by our broke ass govt. anyways.
 
In the event of a world wide economic collapse I don't even see precious metals having much value, I see each community developing its own form of currency that can only be used within the community. Like paper currency precious metal needs stability and a benchmark that's in agreement amongst nations communities and people where it is backed up by man of arms to give it value, take into account the population and density of today Vs the population and density of the 14th century, most people today are not simple farmers of yesterday, today most people rely heavily on the super markets, excisability of common goods, people rely on current modern infrastructure so, in a worldwide economic collapse I don't see much stability in the 21st century collaps, a collapsing government is in no position to set any benchmark on currency. Knowledge in building (mechanical/electrical/structural) in medicine farming and ecology whiskey/whine making and having a store of tradable goods will get you further then precious metal with no known benchmark, you would be better off investing in books and learning then gold and silver.
 
Maverick said:
In the event of a world wide economic collapse I don't even see precious metals having much value, I see each community developing its own form of currency that can only be used within the community. Like paper currency precious metal needs stability and a benchmark that's in agreement amongst nations communities and people where it is backed up by man of arms to give it value, take into account the population and density of today Vs the population and density of the 14th century, most people today are not simple farmers of yesterday, today most people rely heavily on the super markets, excisability of common goods, people rely on current modern infrastructure so, in a worldwide economic collapse I don't see much stability in the 21st century collaps, a collapsing government is in no position to set any benchmark on currency. Knowledge in building (mechanical/electrical/structural) in medicine farming and ecology whiskey/whine making and having a store of tradable goods will get you further then precious metal with no known benchmark, you would be better off investing in books and learning then gold and silver.
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I completely agree with you, Maverick, thus my current desire to unload most of my silver investment. a 64 Kennedy may be stated to be worth melt value of $15 when the economy collapses, but who is going to know that? And who can eat a coin or a bar of metal? As they sell, I am putting that money towards trade/barter items that I can also use myself if necessary.
 
I also agree. I know gold has held it's value over the millennia but really, unless you are into making religious icons it's useless, off the top of my head I can think of nothing useful you can make with gold, in fact an old car leaf spring is 1000x more useful if you know how to work with steel. Gold has almost no intrinsic value, it's "valuable" because people say it is, in that sense it's really no different to a fiat currency although because humans have this infatuation with it I would assume that after things settle down maybe it will still be worth a lot.

I have some money in an investment right now and that scares the heck out of me, I plan to remove it and at least get the cash into a bank, but of course that's vulnerable as well. So what to do? Well I'm not even close to being as prepped as I'd like so I can spend a lot there, but there will (hopefully) be a lot left over and maybe that should be converted to precious metal (I prefer silver BTW), but I think it should be left in a form that can be converted to tangibles within a day or two, so I either have to keep it under the mattress or be very vigilant and ready to spend/withdraw it at a moment's notice.

The thing is if you get to the state where you think you are as prepared as you have to be what do you spend the spare cash on? My preference is for tools and other useful things like wheat grinders etc. They will either be useful to me personally or great for bartering, but I don't need 10 shovels or 3 grinders pre-SHTF and if it doesn't happen I'm broke with too many tools.

Oh and one thing about having money in the bank is that there's no harm done if you jump the gun and take it all out too soon, you can just put it back in, so you can be a bit over cautious because of a scary news broadcast but if nothing bad happens no harm done.

So my plan is to leave cash in the bank (or maybe 2-3 banks) and be prepared to withdraw it at a moment's notice, wait for a few days then spend like crazy if it's the real thing. So while everyone else is scrambling for the 4 Fs (fluid, food, firearms, and fuel) I'll be in the hardware store buying shovels :)
 
Silver has many more uses than gold. It's heavily used in technology. I don't have any gold and don't have any use for it.
I also have no trust in banks. I don't keep my money in it. I do have to have an account because of direct deposit of my retirement check, but as soon as I write the checks that pay the bills, I go withdraw the remainder and put it in my safe.
If I had a lot of money, I'd probably do the same. I think the banks will be shut down before anyone knows there's been a collapse.
 
I think the banks will be shut down before anyone knows there's been a collapse.
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Yes that's the risk to my plan as a "run" can be invisible and over before I even know it in these days of internet banking. I might still stash it at home like you do, guess I'll see how much and how secure I think I can make it. With the crap interest you get these days (~4%) you may as well keep the money at home. Although 4% on a large amount is not to be sneezed at and will buy a lot of baked beans. Swings and roundabouts I suppose, lose the interest but at least have all your cash to hand and safe from the banksters.

You guys with cheques checks, I can't remember the last time I had a check account or even saw a check or heard of anyone using one here in Oz, probably 20 years ago.
 
LWesterfield said:
Silver has many more uses than gold. It's heavily used in technology. I don't have any gold and don't have any use for it.
I also have no trust in banks. I don't keep my money in it. I do have to have an account because of direct deposit of my retirement check, but as soon as I write the checks that pay the bills, I go withdraw the remainder and put it in my safe.
If I had a lot of money, I'd probably do the same. I think the banks will be shut down before anyone knows there's been a collapse.
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I completely agree, they wont advertise that there in trouble. You will drive up to the bank and see a closed sign on the door.
 
I am expecting an overnight collapsed of stock market perhaps October next year. Gold does have some good quality - it does not oxidize (rust, inert) has very good electrical transmission properties - TV etc have some gold in them. But you cant eat it and not good for bullets too soft. There is always some greedy person who will think it has value and trade for it.

I definitely need to stop being lazy and get firearm licence in Oz, left my two handguns back in South Africa. I am currently doing some work in the Outback NSW so it is not too hard. Graynomad I do enjoy your comments.
 
To illustrate a point, I have been carrying $300 worth of two different mediums of exchange hidden in a secret compartment in my wallet for months. Gold and Federal Reserve Notes.

Take whatever medium of exchange you believe to be superior to gold, and carry $300 worth around with you everywhere you go, better yet, hidden in your wallet. You will soon come to have a better appreciation for the inedible shiny yellow metal.

BTW, the gold takes up less space than the Federal Reserve Notes, so I can conceivably carry a lot more value in gold than $100 FRNs in my wallet.
 
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I keep silver not gold as its simply more user friendly, I don't foresee any sort of Wall Street Crash as the electronic controls now in place prevent cascade failures, the system simply stops when things are starting to insane. BUT I could easily envisage an even worse fiscal snafu in the form of the Chinese, Russians and many Arab nations suddenly agreeing to refuse to accept DOLLARS, That would bring down the entire western world in an hour.

I can also easily envisage those socialist inspired left wing bastards in Brussels doing to the entire EUs 29 member states banks what they did to poor little Cyprus. (The EU simply closed all of the Cypriots banks then helped themselves to 40% of all peoples deposits, yes that is right 40% they simply TOOK out of all the bank accounts).

So imagine a future Federal US government finally deciding to start addressing Americas insane levels of debt by simply keeping the banks closed one Monday morn and dipping into everyone's accounts and grabbing 40% of YOUR money??. And at the time there is sweet Fanny Adams you could do about it even with 300 million privately own guns, you could protest, rally, riot, go to court but if the Fed simply copied what the EU has already done and is likely to do again there is little or nothing you can do about it. So don't leave your money in a bank, don't have large debts secured on your home, etc.

Its 2014, its the age of instant online banking and banking account transfers, your bank, my bank and our government agencies are all instantly linked.

At the whim of a British PM, European Burocrat or American President they could use the current anti terror laws, or Patriot acts, or criminal proceeds acts etc to simply press a button and instantly tax you any percentage they so chose.
 
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Agreed paper money devalues very rapidly and gold will hold its value and even increase in value till the very end when only bartering and direct exchange of goods is all that is left.
 
Agreed Paper currency loses value due to inflation / deflation bloody quick, but government grabs of your wages and savings can be even quicker if THEY simply decide to hit us all with a one off instant tax on all current accounts.
 
That Cyprus thing was unbelievable. I guess they can confiscate gold as well and if you're lucky maybe pay you "market value" (where that's any figure they pull out of their arses), it happened before in the US eh? At least with gold/silver/etc they have to physically come and get it, and it's also possible (I believe) to buy it under the counter so there's no record.
 
Yeah mate I have no delusion that when QE and interest rate manipulations no longer work and desperation sets in to cling to power the government will do the unthinkable. Likely to start when US dollar looses value and reserve currency status.
The people in the US are not as timid as those in Cyprus and are the most well armed and 'organised' citizens in the world the rotten pawpaw would definitely hit the fan. The Fed would have to be real desperate - by then it is likely too late to save your money anyway as US dollar would devalue so quickly.

The US is also one of the most aggressive countries in the world the Hurricane Katrina incident where the guys just take up arms and shoot law enforcement that are there to rescue people - shows that things can fall apart overnight.

In Australia it would take a good few week/months for the people to go crazy and very few have guns or access to weapons in an incident like Katrina they would just get in help each other. But I have noticed an upswing in violent incidents have almost doubled in Australia recently.
 
Maverick said:
Sometimes Martin makes since..
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-...ivil-unrest-rising-everywhere-wont-end-pretty
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Nothing will happen until something drastic happens, like what Northern Raider posted above, the government taking money directly from people's bank accounts. A majority of people must be directly harmed by the government before you can get more than a small minority to rebel. Right now, too many people have their heads in the sand because what is going on does not affect them.
 
Hippophibia said:
The US is also one of the most aggressive countries in the world the Hurricane Katrina incident where the guys just take up arms and shoot law enforcement that are there to rescue people - shows that things can fall apart overnight.
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The news stories you heard about Katrina all involved the New Orleans area. I don't know what you know about NO, but it NOT exactly representative of Middle America. LOL! New Orleans doesn't represent anything other than New Orleans. The "Big Easy" is quite unique, and Katrina just exposed the seedy underbelly that's always been there.

If you want to see a response more representative of Middle America, look at what happened on the Mississippi Gulf Coast, which was devastated far worse than New Orleans. Oh yeah, that's right, you didn't get THOSE new stories did you? That's because everybody worked together: LEOs, ordinary citizens, National Guard, and government officials all the way up to the Governor. They all quietly did their part and got everyone away from the path of destruction. It didn't make the news because it wasn't "sensational".
 
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Hippophibia said:
In Australia...very few have guns
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This may actually be one advantage to our strict gun laws that will give those of us that do have access to guns an advantage. Ok we (mostly) don't have semi-autos but what we have is a 1000% better than what most other people have, ie nothing.

Hippophibia said:
I am currently doing some work in the Outback NSW so it is not too hard
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You should be able to get a class A/B (bolt or lever action, < 10 round mag I think) easily, maybe even a class C (semi-auto) if you can convince them you have a real big vermin problem.

Hippophibia said:
Graynomad I do enjoy your comments.
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Thanks mate, I've often been told I should be on the stage...the first one out of town that is. I hope you like being on Oz.
 
It makes me nervous as hell that "money in the bank" is nothing more than a bunch of electronic Ones and Zeros that can be erased in the blink of an eye.

And because I work in IT, I know exactly how easy it is for that to happen. Even though there are redundancies upon redundancies, things go PFFFT! in the most peculiar ways. Just ask the IRS!:eek:
 
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