https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-buy-chinas-story-the-coronavirus-may-have-leaked-from-a-lab/
Don’t buy China’s story: The coronavirus may have leaked from a lab
Don’t buy China’s story: The coronavirus may have leaked from a lab
Fallout from COVID-19
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Maverick
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2017
Is China Ground Zero for a Future Pandemic?
Hundreds there have already died of a new bird flu, putting world health authorities on high alert
Officially, the live-bird markets in Beijing have been shuttered for years. In reality, guerrilla vendors run furtive slaughterhouses throughout this national capital of wide avenues, gleaming architecture and more than 20 million residents—despite warnings that their businesses could be spreading deadly new strains of the flu.
In one such market, a man in sweatstained shorts had stacked dozens of cages—jammed with chickens, pigeons, quail—on the pavement outside his grim hovel.
Many Chinese people, even city dwellers, insist that freshly slaughtered poultry is tastier and more healthful than refrigerated or frozen meat. This is one of the major reasons China has been such a hot spot for new influenza viruses: Nowhere else on earth do so many people have such close contact with so many birds.
Guan is concerned that H7N9 may be undergoing mutations that could make it spread easily between people. He’s alarmed that the most recent version of H7N9 has infected and killed so many more people than other avian flu viruses. “We don’t know why,” he frets.
Then there was that moment last winter when colleagues analyzing H7N9 were startled to discover that some of the viruses—previously non-pathogenic to birds—now were killing them. This virus mutation was so new that scientists discovered it in the lab before poultry vendors reported unusually widespread bird deaths.
Flu viruses can mutate anywhere. In 2015, an H5N2 flu strain broke out in the United States and spread throughout the country, requiring the slaughter of 48 million poultry. But China is uniquely positioned to create a novel flu virus that kills people.
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/china-ground-zero-future-pandemic-180965213/
Is China Ground Zero for a Future Pandemic?
Hundreds there have already died of a new bird flu, putting world health authorities on high alert
Officially, the live-bird markets in Beijing have been shuttered for years. In reality, guerrilla vendors run furtive slaughterhouses throughout this national capital of wide avenues, gleaming architecture and more than 20 million residents—despite warnings that their businesses could be spreading deadly new strains of the flu.
In one such market, a man in sweatstained shorts had stacked dozens of cages—jammed with chickens, pigeons, quail—on the pavement outside his grim hovel.
Many Chinese people, even city dwellers, insist that freshly slaughtered poultry is tastier and more healthful than refrigerated or frozen meat. This is one of the major reasons China has been such a hot spot for new influenza viruses: Nowhere else on earth do so many people have such close contact with so many birds.
Guan is concerned that H7N9 may be undergoing mutations that could make it spread easily between people. He’s alarmed that the most recent version of H7N9 has infected and killed so many more people than other avian flu viruses. “We don’t know why,” he frets.
Then there was that moment last winter when colleagues analyzing H7N9 were startled to discover that some of the viruses—previously non-pathogenic to birds—now were killing them. This virus mutation was so new that scientists discovered it in the lab before poultry vendors reported unusually widespread bird deaths.
Flu viruses can mutate anywhere. In 2015, an H5N2 flu strain broke out in the United States and spread throughout the country, requiring the slaughter of 48 million poultry. But China is uniquely positioned to create a novel flu virus that kills people.
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/china-ground-zero-future-pandemic-180965213/
I have called my Pharmacy about the med's I take and there should be no problems with getting them refilled,,,,there are med's that are a problem mine fortunately are not among them
Maverick
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The ongoing coronavirus epidemic in China may very well end up pulling factories out of China faster than tariffs.
For months, U.S. companies have been moving some of their supply operations out of mainland China. The reason was always trade war uncertainty. But the new viral outbreak of a coronavirus of unknown origin is spooking companies far and wide. Those who were considering moving because of the threat of tariffs on their product line, are now getting more serious about sourcing from China as the outbreak has no end in sight.
If the virus lasts in China as long as its last major bout with a respiratory infection, known as SARS, then it will take until August before this is out of China’s system.
European companies are now saying they’ve been “seriously disrupted” by work stoppages on account of travel restrictions. Those who are sourcing from China may be forced to look elsewhere, the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China told the South China Morning Post on Tuesday.
Joerg Wuttke, president of the chamber, said the outbreak had made many businesses realize they had to diversify into other countries and avoid “putting all their eggs in one basket”, the SCMP reported.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrap...age-to-china-than-the-trade-war/#74ae6c7172ad
For months, U.S. companies have been moving some of their supply operations out of mainland China. The reason was always trade war uncertainty. But the new viral outbreak of a coronavirus of unknown origin is spooking companies far and wide. Those who were considering moving because of the threat of tariffs on their product line, are now getting more serious about sourcing from China as the outbreak has no end in sight.
If the virus lasts in China as long as its last major bout with a respiratory infection, known as SARS, then it will take until August before this is out of China’s system.
European companies are now saying they’ve been “seriously disrupted” by work stoppages on account of travel restrictions. Those who are sourcing from China may be forced to look elsewhere, the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China told the South China Morning Post on Tuesday.
Joerg Wuttke, president of the chamber, said the outbreak had made many businesses realize they had to diversify into other countries and avoid “putting all their eggs in one basket”, the SCMP reported.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrap...age-to-china-than-the-trade-war/#74ae6c7172ad
Maverick
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Think Joerg Wuttke from the post above is a member of DDPF, repeating what we been saying here
Forbes doesn't want me to read the article because I have an ad blocker.
Maverick
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K, hold on, I'll copy
Maverick
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February 19 2020
Coronavirus Might Do More Damage To China Than The Trade War
The ongoing coronavirus epidemic in China may very well end up pulling factories out of China faster than tariffs.
For months, U.S. companies have been moving some of their supply operations out of mainland China. The reason was always trade war uncertainty. But the new viral outbreak of a coronavirus of unknown origin is spooking companies far and wide. Those who were considering moving because of the threat of tariffs on their product line, are now getting more serious about sourcing from China as the outbreak has no end in sight.
If the virus lasts in China as long as its last major bout with a respiratory infection, known as SARS, then it will take until August before this is out of China’s system.
European companies are now saying they’ve been “seriously disrupted” by work stoppages on account of travel restrictions. Those who are sourcing from China may be forced to look elsewhere, the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China told the South China Morning Post on Tuesday.
The Chamber reportedly said that manufacturers were not running at full capacity because of shortages of supplies, labor, and logistical problems caused by travel restrictions.
Joerg Wuttke, president of the chamber, said the outbreak had made many businesses realize they had to diversify into other countries and avoid “putting all their eggs in one basket”, the SCMP reported.
Even before joining the World Trade Organization, China was busy building itself up to be the indispensable manufacturing partner to the U.S. and Europe. Over the last 20 years in particular, China has built itself up from being a Happy Meal toy making economy, to one that can build popular, global consumer software applications like TikTok, and telecommunications equipment industry leaders like Huawei, something no other emerging market has done.
Then along came President Donald Trump, and he effectively pulled a rug out from China’s position as the world’s manufacturer.
But no one could have predicted the coronavirus outbreak, already in the news back in December, would cause even more disruption to China’s economy than the trade war.
The trade war required longer term, strategical planning. The new coronavirus, dubbed Covid-19 by the World Health Organization, is an immediate red alert.
“We have already seen quite a lot of manufacturing in China relocating new capacity to Taiwan, Vietnam and some Japanese companies went back to Japan,” says Owens Huang, senior research analyst at Dalton Investments in Santa Monica. “Most of the manufacturing in the textiles space, something close to 20% of the tech supply chain, has already moved out of China. It all depends on the company. If they have huge U.S. revenue exposure they have already relocated some of U.S. revenue capacity out of China. And now this. The coronavirus will accelerate interest to get out of there,” he says.
As of Wednesday evening in China, some 75,000 people have tested positive for the virus. A little over 15,000 people have recovered. The death toll rose above 2,000 today, with 1,921 of those deaths in the Hubei province epicenter of the outbreak, based on data collected by Johns Hopkins University.
Brace For Immediate Impact
Lockdowns, roadblocks, travel restrictions and bans on the reopening of factories, offices and shops means most Chinese people are not back to work. This has everyone in the market predicting a quick V-shape recovery once the coronavirus has passed. That might be true, bu no one knows how long it will take before the trough is hit. If Covid-19 lasts as long as SARS, the trough doesn’t get reached until mid to late-summer.
Nomura Securities in Hong Kong recently created a daily tracking system to monitor the viruses impact on the Chinese economy. They look at the Baidu Migration Index (BMI) for tracking the “return rate” of workers from their hometowns to work after the Lunar New Year holiday when all hell broke loose, and other indexes used for tracking business activities like passenger traffic flows, energy consumption and new home sales.
Here are some of those numbers, condensed.
BMI Return Rate* 2019 2020
15 city average: 93% 23.1%
Tier one cities: 92.7% 24.9%
Tier two/three cities: 100% 21.9%
*as of February 16
Railway Passenger Trips* Peak-Holiday Post-Holiday
-44.2% -90.7%
*year-over-year, as of February 15. Holiday is Lunar New Year.
Daily Metro Trips* 2019 2020
Shanghai 11.43mln 0.63lmn
Shanghai post-holiday -88.7%
Guangzhou 9.2mln 0.77mln
Guangzhou post-holiday -87.3%
*As of February 16
New Home Sales* 2019 2020
In square footage 492k 38k
Sales volume since holiday -94%
*As of February 15.
Coal Consumption* 2019 2020
In thousand tons 668k 382k
Coal consumption post-holiday -21.5%
*As of February 16. Percentage data is year-over-year.
The frequency of searches for the word “layoffs” on the Baidu search engine rose in recent weeks to 1,606 in the week of February 10 from 460 one week earlier and 557 in January 2020, but lower than the December 17 peak of 1,725.
The number seems low given the tens of millions of people on line in China.
Lastly, the frequency of searches for “shutdown” and “bankruptcy” continues to rise on Baidu, suggesting there is a rising fear that the Covid-19 outbreak is going to greatly impact China’s economy.
“It is by no means clear that the profile of the economic recovery for the Chinese economy will be V-shaped or even U-shaped,” says Neil MacKinnon, an economist with VTB Capital in London. “Apple’s sales warnings this week did not go down well with equity markets. It should serve as a reminder that disrupted supply chains take time to recover.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrap...age-to-china-than-the-trade-war/#1bca97dc72ad
Coronavirus Might Do More Damage To China Than The Trade War
The ongoing coronavirus epidemic in China may very well end up pulling factories out of China faster than tariffs.
For months, U.S. companies have been moving some of their supply operations out of mainland China. The reason was always trade war uncertainty. But the new viral outbreak of a coronavirus of unknown origin is spooking companies far and wide. Those who were considering moving because of the threat of tariffs on their product line, are now getting more serious about sourcing from China as the outbreak has no end in sight.
If the virus lasts in China as long as its last major bout with a respiratory infection, known as SARS, then it will take until August before this is out of China’s system.
European companies are now saying they’ve been “seriously disrupted” by work stoppages on account of travel restrictions. Those who are sourcing from China may be forced to look elsewhere, the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China told the South China Morning Post on Tuesday.
The Chamber reportedly said that manufacturers were not running at full capacity because of shortages of supplies, labor, and logistical problems caused by travel restrictions.
Joerg Wuttke, president of the chamber, said the outbreak had made many businesses realize they had to diversify into other countries and avoid “putting all their eggs in one basket”, the SCMP reported.
Even before joining the World Trade Organization, China was busy building itself up to be the indispensable manufacturing partner to the U.S. and Europe. Over the last 20 years in particular, China has built itself up from being a Happy Meal toy making economy, to one that can build popular, global consumer software applications like TikTok, and telecommunications equipment industry leaders like Huawei, something no other emerging market has done.
Then along came President Donald Trump, and he effectively pulled a rug out from China’s position as the world’s manufacturer.
But no one could have predicted the coronavirus outbreak, already in the news back in December, would cause even more disruption to China’s economy than the trade war.
The trade war required longer term, strategical planning. The new coronavirus, dubbed Covid-19 by the World Health Organization, is an immediate red alert.
“We have already seen quite a lot of manufacturing in China relocating new capacity to Taiwan, Vietnam and some Japanese companies went back to Japan,” says Owens Huang, senior research analyst at Dalton Investments in Santa Monica. “Most of the manufacturing in the textiles space, something close to 20% of the tech supply chain, has already moved out of China. It all depends on the company. If they have huge U.S. revenue exposure they have already relocated some of U.S. revenue capacity out of China. And now this. The coronavirus will accelerate interest to get out of there,” he says.
As of Wednesday evening in China, some 75,000 people have tested positive for the virus. A little over 15,000 people have recovered. The death toll rose above 2,000 today, with 1,921 of those deaths in the Hubei province epicenter of the outbreak, based on data collected by Johns Hopkins University.
Brace For Immediate Impact
Lockdowns, roadblocks, travel restrictions and bans on the reopening of factories, offices and shops means most Chinese people are not back to work. This has everyone in the market predicting a quick V-shape recovery once the coronavirus has passed. That might be true, bu no one knows how long it will take before the trough is hit. If Covid-19 lasts as long as SARS, the trough doesn’t get reached until mid to late-summer.
Nomura Securities in Hong Kong recently created a daily tracking system to monitor the viruses impact on the Chinese economy. They look at the Baidu Migration Index (BMI) for tracking the “return rate” of workers from their hometowns to work after the Lunar New Year holiday when all hell broke loose, and other indexes used for tracking business activities like passenger traffic flows, energy consumption and new home sales.
Here are some of those numbers, condensed.
BMI Return Rate* 2019 2020
15 city average: 93% 23.1%
Tier one cities: 92.7% 24.9%
Tier two/three cities: 100% 21.9%
*as of February 16
Railway Passenger Trips* Peak-Holiday Post-Holiday
-44.2% -90.7%
*year-over-year, as of February 15. Holiday is Lunar New Year.
Daily Metro Trips* 2019 2020
Shanghai 11.43mln 0.63lmn
Shanghai post-holiday -88.7%
Guangzhou 9.2mln 0.77mln
Guangzhou post-holiday -87.3%
*As of February 16
New Home Sales* 2019 2020
In square footage 492k 38k
Sales volume since holiday -94%
*As of February 15.
Coal Consumption* 2019 2020
In thousand tons 668k 382k
Coal consumption post-holiday -21.5%
*As of February 16. Percentage data is year-over-year.
The frequency of searches for the word “layoffs” on the Baidu search engine rose in recent weeks to 1,606 in the week of February 10 from 460 one week earlier and 557 in January 2020, but lower than the December 17 peak of 1,725.
The number seems low given the tens of millions of people on line in China.
Lastly, the frequency of searches for “shutdown” and “bankruptcy” continues to rise on Baidu, suggesting there is a rising fear that the Covid-19 outbreak is going to greatly impact China’s economy.
“It is by no means clear that the profile of the economic recovery for the Chinese economy will be V-shaped or even U-shaped,” says Neil MacKinnon, an economist with VTB Capital in London. “Apple’s sales warnings this week did not go down well with equity markets. It should serve as a reminder that disrupted supply chains take time to recover.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrap...age-to-china-than-the-trade-war/#1bca97dc72ad
Thanks. Well, he has some facts wrong.
"The new coronavirus, dubbed Covid-19 by the World Health Organization"
WHO named the disease "COVID-19" (Capital letters) not the virus. The International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses named the virus "SARS-CoV-2"
Yeah, I know, splitting hairs maybe, but it doesn't inspire confidence in the writer's knowledge.
"The new coronavirus, dubbed Covid-19 by the World Health Organization"
WHO named the disease "COVID-19" (Capital letters) not the virus. The International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses named the virus "SARS-CoV-2"
Yeah, I know, splitting hairs maybe, but it doesn't inspire confidence in the writer's knowledge.
KateMTx
A True Doomsday Prepper
It wouldn't surprise me if it "leaked" from a lab (maybe intentionally). I also read there are now cases of the virus that they can't trace to someone who had contact with someone from China or any other know individual with the virus. This virus also has show to spread far more easily than other Coronaviruses like SARS virus.
With the cruise ship quarantine in Japan, and the church outbreak in South Korea, the virus has definitely spread beyond just China now. If this continues, the economic fall-out could be a result of a global pandemic rather than a breakdown in the Chinese market.
With the cruise ship quarantine in Japan, and the church outbreak in South Korea, the virus has definitely spread beyond just China now. If this continues, the economic fall-out could be a result of a global pandemic rather than a breakdown in the Chinese market.
Well the U.S government agencies, have finally come out of hiding. The panic buying and prepping has started today.
I suspect many fast food and dine in restaurants will be shut dow due the virus and many will not reopen. Prepare for many businesses to go under permanently.
Brent S
Top Poster
I am very great full that I’m in good enough financial shape to lay low and wait this thing out if need be. Unfortunately most people in the world simply can’t afford to not go to work each day. I honestly think the economic impact will likely be more painful than the disease. I read that something like 60% of Americans couldn’t come up with $400.00 for an emergency. That’s pretty scary.
Proctors and Gamble warn of supply shortages of all there 14,600 products due to Corona virus
https://www.naturalnews.com/2020-02...e-warns-products-ingredients-coronavirus.html
https://www.naturalnews.com/2020-02...e-warns-products-ingredients-coronavirus.html
bigpaul
A True Doomsday Prepper
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some businesses are beginning to realise that because of the virus there may be a break in the supply chain, something we have all been saying for years, but do they listen? well now its coming home to roost.
https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-screening-missing-more-half-cases-study-131815734.html
Coronavirus screening 'missing more than half of cases': study
Coronavirus screening 'missing more than half of cases': study
Hi, I'm back after going down personally for a few days. I've got masks, gloves, disenfectant and such for the family. Food for all for a few months. Waterfilters and chemotoilette ready. Like I said in the Shoutbox, Corona is in the next town. 11 miles away. Tried to talk to the US Army in Stuttgart about MMS. As soon as the word
"chemicals" came out of my mouth, the MPs showed up and took all my personal info. Photo, DD 214, address and cell phone nr. Now my cell phone does not work right, probably a spy-ware on it now as a Trojan...JUST WANTED TO HELP!!! Anyway, bugger down, recharge everything and wait it out. Saw pics of the stores here in Italy after the quarantine. Spices, mustard, mayo, salt and pepper were in the pic, Just almost no meats or veggies. Shelves almost empty...GP
"chemicals" came out of my mouth, the MPs showed up and took all my personal info. Photo, DD 214, address and cell phone nr. Now my cell phone does not work right, probably a spy-ware on it now as a Trojan...JUST WANTED TO HELP!!! Anyway, bugger down, recharge everything and wait it out. Saw pics of the stores here in Italy after the quarantine. Spices, mustard, mayo, salt and pepper were in the pic, Just almost no meats or veggies. Shelves almost empty...GP
Maverick
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My son was telling me contractors had to stop work at an construction site because they couldn't get any respirators or cartridges to the existing ones from any local venders including home depot and lowse, they have limited stock in the next state over, I guess that's what they are having to do and drive 70 miles.
This panic buying is hurting contractors from the sounds of it.
This panic buying is hurting contractors from the sounds of it.
That was my first thought when I saw the empty shelves at Home Depot.
Tell him to try Harbor Freight.
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