Fallout from COVID-19

[DrHenley]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/me...ontinues-to-ravage-china-e2-80-8b/ar-BB109Hdb
Expert warns of mass medicine shortages if COVID-19 continues to ravage China

Time is running out. Imagine Birth Control Pills, HIV, Alzheimer's Disease, Bipolar Disorder, High Blood Pressure, Colon Cancer, Chemotherapy, Anti-Depressants, Epilepsy, and 90% of antibiotics gone from pharmacies across the Carolinas, and the U.S.

"We should never have been in this situation."

Rosemary Gibson wrote the book on the subject, titled: China Rx: Exposing the Risks of America’s Dependence on China for Medicine. She predicts that the United States will see shortages of medicines by mid-March if conditions in China do not vastly improve.

"Beginning in March, if the Corona Virus continues to outbreak in China and workers are not going to work and transportation routes are still closed, shortages of vital medicines in the United States are likely to happen."

 

[DrHenley]

https://www.canadadrugshortage.com/2020/01/

My physician had ordered a refill of Losartan which had had been controlling my blood pressure well. It was not available.

She ordered her second choice, which was also not available.

She finally ordered a medication that the pharmacy could get for me. Now I hear that that third medication is not available at some pharmacies.

This situation presents a huge problem for people who travel, as travel insurance considers this a medication change and it puts the person in the medically unstable group at a great financial cost–if it is available at all. This now impacts travel across provincial borders for those of us in Ontario.

 

[DrHenley]

List of current drug shortages dated 12 Feb 2020:
https://www.ashp.org/drug-shortages/current-shortages/drug-shortage-detail.aspx?id=529

Reason for the Shortage

• Alembic did not provide a reason for the shortage.
• Aurobindo refused to provide updated availability information
• Cadista did not provide a reason for the shortage.
• Lupin did not provide a reason for the shortage.
• Merck did not provide a reason for the Hyzaar shortage.
• Rising discontinued all losartan and hydrochlorothiazide presentations.

Estimated Resupply Dates

• Alembic has losartan and hydrochlorothiazide tablets on allocation to contracted customers
• Cadista discontinued all losartan and hydrochlorothiazide tablets.
• Lupin has losartan and hydrochlorothiazide tablets on back order and the company cannot estimate a release date.
• Sandoz has losartan and hydrochlorothiazide tablet presentations on back order and the company cannot estimate a release date.
• Teva has all losartan and hydrochlorothiazide tablet presentations on back order and the company estimates release dates in mid- to late-February 2020.

 

[Kevin L]

I started this thread to separate discussions of the ramifications of the epidemic from the epidemic itself.
Some just occurred to me...
We have all wondered about what would happen if the supply of goods from China were cut off. And to some extent we are started to see an example of that. But what is different from the expected scenario is that the demand for goods from China has taken a nosedive due to concerns over product safety, namely the fear that goods from China could be contaminated by the SARS-COV-2 Virus.

In other words, people can't get their normal products from China, but then people don't WANT products from China. So both supply and demand have both gone down simultaneously rather than just the supply.

Another fallout from this is the outcry in China over the government's handling of the crisis. Hashtag "I want freedom of speech" was trending on China social media for several hours before the censors could suppress it. There is widespread anger at the government, especially in Hubei Province. And those people on lockdown in Hubei have nothing to do so they are spending a lot of time on social media and they are talking.

Spending a lot of time on social media?

Or having lots of sex because they're stranded in the house?

I wonder if there will be a kind of baby boom in 9 months.

 

[DrHenley]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-...avirus-news-uk-china-diamond-princess-cruise/
Coronavirus: Europe braces for coronavirus-induced drug shortages

Europe, the US and India have all flagged possible drug shortages following China's coronavirus outbreak.

China produces around 80 per cent of the raw materials used in India's medicines, but with the country currently in the grip of an epidemic, production has slowed and stockpiles are running low.

As a result, prices of common drugs in India have skyrocketed due to disruptions causes by the outbreak. The price of paracetamol has jumped up by 40 per cent and common antibiotics by 70 per cent.

 

[DrHenley]

https://www.fiercepharma.com/manufa...ug-shortages-grows-as-covid-19-outbreak-drags
Concern for drug shortages grows as COVID-19 outbreak drags on

Historically, the FDA and drugmakers have turned to alternate suppliers to help make up shortfalls, but in this case that may be hard to do. That is because China is considered the largest producer of the ingredients drugmakers everywhere require to make their products. Many of those APIs are for generic drugs, and generic drugs make up nearly 90% of the U.S. drug supply.

In India, which gets two-thirds of its APIs from China, the government determined drugmakers have about two-months supply on hand, the Indian Express reports. That is particularly important to the U.S. since the FDA estimates that India accounts for 40% of the U.S. generics.

 

[Maverick]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/me...ontinues-to-ravage-china-e2-80-8b/ar-BB109Hdb
Expert warns of mass medicine shortages if COVID-19 continues to ravage China

Which mean they will start triaging patients at some point, pretty much the elderly is fxxked.

 

[Maverick]

“Everything was supposed to be back to normal by now,” said Craig Allen, president of the US-China Business Council. “It’s not going to happen for a while. I think that’s starting to sink in.”

 

[grayghost668]

A lot of people are going to be hurting,,,,I take some meds for High BP and a aspirn a day,,,

 

[DrHenley]

Several BP meds are experiencing shortages.

 

[grayghost668]

I will have to call and see if I can still get mine

 

[tmttactical]

For all the med takers, me included, I hope this is an eye opener. We need to be more proactive about forcing our government to require vital supplies be manufactured / produced in the USA. We can live without an Apple phone or wristwatch but medical supplies must be produced in the good old USA.

 

[DrHenley]

The thing is, many of the meds affected are manufactured in the US, but use certain chemicals that are primarily manufactured in China.

 

[DrHenley]

https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world-news/hundreds-animals-mysteriously-drop-dead-21547076
Hundreds of animals mysteriously drop dead in China amid coronavirus outbreak

Hundreds of animals have mysteriously dropped dead in China amid the ongoing fight against the coronavirus.
...
Communist Party officials have blamed the deaths on massive disinfecting efforts carried out by Chinese authorities.

Videos have previously been released showing trucks driving around coronavirus hit cities spraying huge plumes of toxic liquid to kill the infection.

And maybe some of the human deaths too?

 

[DrHenley]

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-rel...s-covid-19-could-knock-it-over-301009045.html
Chinese Economy Took a Hit During SARS, COVID-19 Could Knock It Over

BEIJING, Feb. 21, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- As China struggles to contain the spread of COVID-19, everyone is wondering how this incident will impact the greater economy. Although there are still many uncertainties about the current crisis, to compare the repercussions of this virus with the SARS virus, which broke out in 2003, is optimistic. Back then, China's share of the world's GDP was 8.8%; now it's 19.2%. China's economy grinding to a halt will have massive impacts around the world.

 

[Maverick]

These results suggest that foreign companies might re-evaluate their relationships with China. For many, the virus comes after two long years dealing with trade war tariffs
and has added to the sense of China fatigue. It is for some “the straw that broke the camel’s back”, said Evans, from Tractus.

Hetin Shah, the president of supply chain management company MES Inc, said that his US Fortune 500 clients “do not want anything to do with China right now”, with the supply chain risks deemed to be too severe.

“Our key suppliers are terrified. Even workers within the province aren’t willing to go out and go to work, people are really scared,” he said, referring to fears of becoming infected with the virus. “People are still choosing to stay at home.”

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-...inas-manufacturing-supply-chain-pummelled-all

 

[DrHenley]

“Our key suppliers are terrified. Even workers within the province aren’t willing to go out and go to work, people are really scared,” he said, referring to fears of becoming infected with the virus. “People are still choosing to stay at home.”

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-...inas-manufacturing-supply-chain-pummelled-all

“This is a black swan event and I don’t think we’ve seen anything like it in recent history, in terms of the economic and supply chain impact in China and across the globe.”

That's the first time I've heard "Black Swan Event" mentioned in relationship to the outbreak. However, given the history (e.g. SARS epidemic) it is not entirely unpredictable, nor is it unprecedented, which are characteristics of a true "Black Swan Event." There just happened to be a number of factors that exacerbated it.

 

[Maverick]

Coronavirus: China’s surgical mask shortage ripples through global supply chain as health crisis continues

China is the world’s largest producer of medical facial masks, but surging demand amid the coronavirus outbreak has created a severe shortage
The shortfall has prompted Beijing to adopt quasi-wartime rationing, leading to an increase in imports and pushing some companies to manufacture their own for staff

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-...chinas-surgical-mask-shortage-ripples-through

 

[Maverick]

“This is a black swan event and I don’t think we’ve seen anything like it in recent history, in terms of the economic and supply chain impact in China and across the globe.”

That's the first time I've heard "Black Swan Event" mentioned in relationship to the outbreak. However, given the history (e.g. SARS epidemic) it is not entirely unpredictable, nor is it unprecedented, which are characteristics of a true "Black Swan Event." There just happened to be a number of factors that exacerbated it.

A lot of people stated or suggested the impact on the world supply chain if china was hit with a widespread endemic way before the coronavirus, so a black swan event it wasn't.

 

[DrHenley]

A lot of people stated or suggested the impact on the world supply chain if china was hit with a widespread endemic way before the coronavirus, so a black swan event it wasn't.

Yep. They can't say nobody saw this coming.